A vehicle may include an engine selectively coupled to a motor and a transmission. The vehicle may include a controller configured to, in response to actuation of a brake pedal, command the transmission to downshift during a regenerative braking event based on a regenerative braking downshift torque. The regenerative braking downshift torque may be determined from a predicted brake pedal input rate. The predicted brake pedal input rate may be based on road grade, vehicle headway range and a driver history. The predicted brake pedal input rate may be classified as Low, Medium, or High. The regenerative braking downshift torque may also be determined from a predicted brake torque rate that is based on a predicted deceleration rate of the vehicle, a vehicle speed prediction and a road grade prediction within a future time interval that begins upon actuation of the brake pedal.