According to the invention, techniques for refining a ballistic prediction are described. In an example, an eye tracking system may record images over time of content presented on a display. Saccade data may be received and used as a trigger to retrieve particular ones of the recoded images. The eye tracking system may compare the images to identify a change in the content. The location of this change may correspond to a sub-area of the display. The output of the ballistic prediction may include a landing point that represents an anticipated gaze point. This landing point may be adjusted such that a gaze point is now predicted to fall within the sub-area when the change is significant.