In one embodiment, a device identifies a sudden change in a time series of a quality of service metric for a first path in a network that violates a service level agreement threshold associated with application traffic conveyed via the first path. The device predicts a length of time that the sudden change in the time series will last. The device determines, based in part on the length of time that the sudden change in the time series is predicted to last, that the application traffic should be rerouted onto a second path in the network. The device causes the application traffic to be rerouted onto the second path in the network.