Autonomous vehicle operation with explicit occlusion reasoning may include traversing, by a vehicle, a vehicle transporation network. Traversing the vehicle transportation network can include receiving, from a sensor of the vehicle, sensor data for a portion of a vehicle operational environment, determining, using the sensor data, a visibility grid comprising coordinates forming an unobserved region within a defined distance from the vehicle, computing a probability of a presence of an external object within the unobserved region by comparing the visibility grid to a map (e.g., a high-definition map), and traversing a portion of the vehicle transportation network using the probability. An apparatus and a vehicle are also described.