US Patent 7516096 Fabrication facility major excursion event cost forecast model

A system and method for forecasting the monetary impact resulting from non-predictable events within an enterprise begins by determining one or more monetary impact contributors attributable to the non-predictable events. The monetary impact of the contributors at the occurrence of previous non-predictable events is determined. A modeling function most likely to correspond to the monetary impact of the contributors at the occurrence of the previous non-predictable events is selected and the scaling coefficients for each of the contributors are calculated. The modeling function is then verified and an error function developed by the verifying to a deviation limit is compared to a deviation limit. If the error function exceeds the deviation limit, other modeling functions are selected and tested until the error function does not exceed the deviation limit. Once the deviation limit is not exceeded, a future monetary impact of upon occurrence of the non-predictable event is forecast.